Card counting has long intrigued blackjack players who want to gain an edge over the casino. While some see it as an advanced strategy reserved for experts, the truth is, anyone can learn to count cards with the right system and enough practice. With many different card counting methods available, from simple systems like Ace 5 to more complex strategies like the Hi-Lo system, players have the opportunity to improve their odds at the blackjack table.
But in today’s world, where casinos use everything from multiple decks to facial recognition technology to counter advantage players, the question remains: Can you still beat blackjack by counting cards? This article will explore the most popular card counting systems, how they apply to both live and online play, and what strategies are still effective this year.
What Is Card Counting in Blackjack and How Does It Work?
Card counting in blackjack is a strategy where players track certain cards to predict when the remaining deck is favorable. The most common approach assigns values to cards. For instance, high cards (10s, face cards, and aces) are counted as -1, and low cards (2-6) are counted as +1. By keeping a running count, players can determine when the remaining deck is rich in high cards, which increases the chances of getting a natural blackjack.
More advanced systems, like the Hi-Lo method, involve calculating a “true count” by dividing the running count by the number of remaining decks. This adjustment helps players accurately gauge their advantage based on how many cards have been dealt.
Why Do Blackjack Players Count Cards?
Players count cards to gain an edge over the casino by increasing their chances of making better bets when the deck favors them. When the count is positive, there are more high-value cards left, making it easier to hit blackjacks and doubles. By adjusting bets based on the count, players can maximize their profits over time, turning the house edge in their favor.
How Does Card Counting Affect the Odds?
Card counting helps players to shift the odds slightly in their favor. For example, with a true count of +2, the player’s edge increases by about 1%. The higher the true count, the more likely the player is to win higher-value hands, such as blackjacks or double-down opportunities.
How Difficult Is Card Counting for Advanced Players?
Card counting is more about practice rather than being a difficult and complex thing to learn for advanced players. Systems like Hi-Lo require keeping a running count and converting it into a true count, which becomes easier with experience.
The challenge lies in not getting distracted in a live-dealer room or at a real table and making accurate decisions quickly, especially under casino scrutiny.
Is Card Counting Still Effective This Year?
Card counting remains effective in the world of modern casinos and online casinos, but it has become more challenging. Casinos are using multiple decks, more frequent shuffling and surveillance tracking has got better in the last two years to limit players.
With careful application in the right environments – such as live dealer blackjack games where the penetration rate is higher – counting can still provide a small edge.
What Are the Latest Developments in Casino Countermeasures?
Casinos now rely on advanced technology like facial recognition, RFID chips, and player databases to track and identify known card counters. Dealers are trained to reshuffle more frequently too, making the actual counting harder, along with shuffle tracking.
What Are the Best Card Counting Systems for Advanced Blackjack Players?
There are several card counting systems that work well for advanced players, including Ace 5 counting, Hi-Lo system, Knock Out, Red 7, and Silver Fox. These systems range from simple to more complex, each suited to different playing environments for both online casinos and real life casinos.
| System | Type | True Count Required? | Complexity | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace 5 | Unbalanced | No | Simple | Beginners, Live Dealer |
| Hi-Lo | Balanced | Yes | Moderate | Pros, Live Dealer |
| Knock Out (KO) | Unbalanced | No | Moderate | Live Dealer, In-Person |
| Red 7 | Unbalanced | No | Moderate | Live Dealer, In-Person |
| Silver Fox | Balanced | Yes | Moderate | Advanced Players |
| Speed Count | Unbalanced | No | Simple | Casual Players |
Ace 5 Counting: Is It Effective for Online Play?
The Ace 5 counting system is one of the easiest to use but is less effective in online play, especially at virtual tables where the deck is reshuffled constantly. It can be applied to live dealer blackjack games where there’s enough deck penetration to track the cards.
The simplicity of this system makes it a good starting point for beginners, but advanced players will want a more robust system for greater accuracy.
The ace five blackjack system is based on the fact that the ace is the most valuable card for the player and the five is the worst card for the player. When a five is removed from a deck, it increases the player’s chance to win. This effectively lowers the house edge.
When an ace is removed from the deck of cards, it hurts the player’s chance to win and raises the house edge. Using these two pieces of information, you can track the aces and fives and use the information to alter your bet amounts. This can eliminate the house edge.
Here’s how the ace five card counting system works:
- You start with a count of zero. If you don’t like to work with negative numbers, you can start with a count of 10, and adjust the count where you raise your bets by 10.
- Every time you see a five, you add one to your count, and every time you see an ace, you subtract one from your count.
- It doesn’t matter if the ace or five is in your hand, another player’s hand, or in the dealer’s hand. You add or subtract for every five and ace that gets played.
- You start with a base bet amount, and when the count reaches +2 (or 12 if you started at 10), you double your bet amount.
- Every time the count goes up, you double your bet again, and when it goes down, you reduce your bet accordingly. Any time the count is at +1 or below, you bet your base amount.
The only downside to the ace five card counting system is that it’s a relatively weak system compared to more advanced systems. It will help you overcome the house edge, but it’s not going to do much better than allow you to play a breakeven game. Of course, playing breakeven blackjack is better than losing.
Hi-Lo System: Why It’s the Most Popular System Among Pros
The Hi-Lo system is the most widely used card counting method among professionals due to its balance between accuracy and ease of use. It tracks high and low cards, giving a better estimate of how favorable the deck currently is.
It means in online live-dealer rooms where multiple decks are in play, players will need to convert the running count into a true count where deck penetration allows for longer sessions.
- Step 1: Assign values to cards.
- Step 2: Keep a running count.
- Step 3: Divide the running count by the remaining decks (if using a true count).
- Step 4: Adjust your bets based on the count.
Knock Out (KO) and Red 7: Best Unbalanced Systems for Online and In-Person Play
Both the Knock Out (KO) and Red 7 systems are unbalanced, meaning they don’t require converting to a true count. The KO system is easier to learn and use since it doesn’t track the color of the cards.
The Red 7 system, offers slightly more precision by only counting red 7s. These systems are ideal for players who want to avoid the extra complexity of true counts, making them effective for live dealer blackjack and some in-person games.
How Does The Knock Out (KO) System Work?
- In the KO system, you track 11 cards.
- Every time you see any card from a two to seven, you add one to your count.
- Every time you see a 10 to ace, you subtract one from your count.
Once you learn how to track a few cards, it only takes a little bit of practice to learn how to track more. You don’t need to memorize the cards. You simply subtract or add one at a time to your count.
How Does The The Knock Out (KO) System Work When Multiple Decks Are Used?
The main advantage that the KO system, and the Red 7 system, has over the popular Hi Lo system is you don’t have to calculate your count based on the number of decks remaining during play. This is handled by starting your count at a set number based on the number of decks before you start counting.
- When you use the KO system, you start your count based on the number of decks.
- In a single deck game, you start your count at 0.
- In a double deck game, you start your count at -4.
- In a six-deck shoe game, you start your count at -2
- In an eight-deck shoe game, you start at -28.
- When the count is at 0 or negative, you make your minimum bet.
- When the count gets to +1, you double your bet.
- You keep doubling your bet as the count goes up until you reach your maximum bet amount.
Speed Count and Silver Fox: When to Use These Systems?
The Speed Count system is designed for ease, as it only tracks low cards and requires less attention to specific details compared to other methods. It has limited precision though, meaning less professionals will tend to use it.
The Silver Fox system, on the other hand, is a balanced system similar to Hi-Lo but tracks one fewer card, making it slightly easier to manage.
Both systems can be useful, but neither is as good or effective as other advanced card counting methods like the Hi-Lo system for longer term play.
How Does Speed Count Work?
Speed Count, which was developed by Frank Scoblete and is included in a couple of his blackjack books.
- The basic way to use the speed count is to track low cards and compare the volume of them to the number of hands that are dealt on each round.
- You track all of the cards valued two to six that are dealt every round and subtract the number of hands that are dealt on the round.
- You then use this number to adjust your overall count and adjust your bet size based on the running count, just like in the ace five system.
Can You Still Count Cards at Online Blackjack Sites?
Card counting is possible at online blackjack sites, but its effectiveness depends on the type of game.
- Virtual blackjack, where the deck is reshuffled after every hand, prevents players from gaining any advantage.
- Live dealer blackjack provides an opportunity to count cards, as these games deal from real decks and offer enough deck penetration for skilled players to gain a small edge.
| Feature | Virtual Blackjack | Live Dealer Blackjack |
|---|---|---|
| Deck Shuffling | After every hand | After significant deck penetration |
| Card Counting | Not effective | Can be effective if deck penetration is high |
| Player Edge | No edge | Slight edge if conditions are right |
| Experience | Fully automated, fast-paced | More realistic, human interaction |
Card Counting Bankroll: How Much Money Do You Need?
Most blackjack players think that counting cards is all about the skill. They believe that if they’re good enough, they’ll make profits no matter what.
This belief is true to some degree. However, one also needs a large bankroll to guarantee profits.
The following guide covers why you need significant money to make it as a counter. It also discusses how to determine the right amount of funds for when you are counting cards.
Most Card Counters Don’t Start With Enough Money
The average card counter doesn’t make it very far. They quickly flame out due to one or more reasons.
Here are some common reasons for why most card counters fail:
- Not skilled enough
- Not able to keep up with the dealer’s speed when counting
- Getting easily distracted by the casino environment
- Not knowing when to increase and lower bets
All of these are crucial problems that can derail a card counter before they even get started. But as you’ll notice, bankroll management isn’t listed among the above reasons.
Far too many aspiring advantage players (APs) don’t account for money management. Failure to consider this aspect is one of—if not THE—biggest reasons why skilled card counters are unsuccessful.
Of course, nothing is stopping you from embarking on a card counting journey with $250. As you’ll find out later, though, $250 doesn’t provide much of a safety net.
Volatility – Crushing Card Counters Since the 1960s
People have been successfully and unsuccessfully counting cards since 1961. This is the year when Edward Thorp dropped his famous book Beat the Dealer, which taught numerous gamblers how to count cards.
Of course, most early APs didn’t make it very far. They might have picked up on Thorp’s counting advice, but they didn’t know much about volatility.
The latter is crushing to any underfunded card counter. Most APs only gain between a 1% and 1.5% advantage through counting.
A 1% edge is enough to make long-term profits with large bets. However, it isn’t a big enough advantage to guarantee profits every night.
You may experience really hot nights and win big some days. On others, though, you’ll lose to the casino even when doing everything right.
Again, the 1% advantage provides enough of an edge to win. But it also leaves you quite vulnerable to volatility.
You Need Enough Money to Properly Spread Bets
Casinos force you to wait until the beginning of a shoe before playing real money blackjack. They indicate this with signs on tables that read, “No mid-shoe entry.”
Therefore, you have no advantage upon first sitting down to a table and playing. You must count cards until verifying that a deck is rich in 10-value cards and aces (i.e. a positive count).
Until determining a positive count, you should only make the table’s minimum bet. The minimum wager ensures that you don’t lose much money when the house holds the advantage.
Once the count becomes positive, you want to increase your wagers to capitalize. This act of “bet spreading” is where you make profits.
Here’s an example on how to properly spread bets:
- A table features a $10 minimum bet.
- You increase your wager to $25 with a +1 count.
- You increase your bet to $50 with a +2 count.
- You increase your wager to $75 with a +3 count.
- You increase your bet to $100 with a +4 count or higher.
Once you start risking $50 or more per hand, you’re essentially playing high-stakes blackjack. At this point, you need significant money to bet $50, $75, or $100 on every hand.
You can’t do this for any sustainable amount of time with $500 or less. Instead, you need enough funds to comfortable bet up to $100 no matter if things are or aren’t going your way.
Guidelines on How Much Money You’ll Need to Count Cards
You can take one of two main approaches to card counting:
- Playing by yourself
- Playing with a team
In the first case, you don’t need as much money to get started. After all, you’re the only one placing bets and taking profits.
You should be able to comfortably count cards with a $7,000 or $8,000 casino bankroll. Of course, having more than this is even better.
As for counting with a team, you need both “spotters” and a “big player.” Spotters spread out to different tables and count cards.
However, a spotter never raises bets, meaning they’re always facing a house edge. The spotter’s main role is to signal the big player (BP) when the deck is hot.
A BP can then sit down and immediately start placing big bets. In this manner, they never attract suspicion from casino staff members for bet spreading. They simply look like a high roller who’s benefiting from good fortune.
With spotters and a BP, card counting teams need additional starting capital. For this reason, a team should begin with anywhere from $18,000 to $23,000.
Calculating a More Specific Casino Bankroll
You can likely get started with little trouble when using the aforementioned general guidelines. However, you might also want to develop a plan that’s specifically tailored to you.
The best way to come up with a plan is to consider variables (e.g. average bet size, hands played) that meet your situation. You’ll need time to develop accurate guesses on these variables.
Here’s a generic example on getting started with calculating your bankroll:
- You count for around 300 hands per night (approx. three hours).
- Your average bet size is $40 when including the minimum wager and bet spreading.
- 300 x 40 = $12,000 in total wagers
- You hold a 1.5% edge.
- 12,000 x 0.015 = $180 theoretical profit per night
As seen in this example, you’ll bet $12k on average during each outing. You stand no chance of losing all $12k in a single night.
You’ll probably never lose 50% ($6k) of this amount either. However, you might lose up to 10% or more of your bets during a really bad night.
Using the above example, losing 10% of these bets means shredding $1,200 of your bankroll in one day. Assuming you go with the $7k or $8k general requirement, though, you can handle terrible nights.
The key is that you have enough money to get through the rough points and eventually make profits. You have the edge; you just need enough cushion to absorb losing nights and soldier on.
How Do Online Blackjack Casinos Deal With Card Counting?
Online casinos have measures in place to try and prevent card counting.
- In virtual blackjack, software reshuffles the deck after every hand, eliminating the possibility of tracking cards.
- Live dealer blackjack games offer a limited opportunity, but casinos often reshuffle the deck before too much penetration occurs, and some monitor betting patterns to detect potential counters. Try and see how often re-shuffling occurs and how many decks are in play.
Why Do Some Players Think Card Counting Is Dead in Online Play?
Many players believe card counting is ineffective in online play due to the widespread use of virtual blackjack games, where decks are reshuffled after each hand. In live dealer games, automated shuffling machines are present along with other casino technology.
How Does Casino Technology Make Counting Harder?
Casinos use advanced technology to detect and prevent card counting. This includes automated shuffling machines in live games, facial recognition to identify known card counters, and player tracking software that monitors betting patterns. Players can be quickly identified when card counting and have their bet sizes limited to prevent them having an advantage.
What Are the Challenges of Card Counting in Online Blackjack?
The main challenges of card counting in online blackjack stem from reshuffling practices and increased surveillance.
- Virtual tables reshuffle after every hand, while live dealer tables often reshuffle before significant deck penetration is achieved.
- Online casinos monitor betting patterns and may take action if they suspect a player is counting cards.
- The absence of physical cues in online play also makes it harder to gather the information needed for effective counting.
How Can Players Minimize the Risk of Detection at Live Dealer Casinos?
Minimize the risk of detection while counting cards at live dealer casinos:
- Avoid drastic bet spreads and instead increase bets gradually.
- Use camouflage techniques, like changing bet sizes after winning hands.
- Pretending to follow “gut feelings,” can also help mask counting activity.
What Basic and Advanced Blackjack Strategies Should You Master First?
Before mastering card counting, players must first learn basic blackjack strategy. This is knowing how to handle every hand in terms of splitting, hitting, standing or doubling down – based on the best move to make in terms of probabilities.
Once mastered, more advanced players should focus on learning basic card counting like Hi-Lo or Knock Out, then shuffle tracking and bet spread techniques.
How Does Basic Strategy Support Card Counting?
Basic strategy reduces the house edge to its lowest possible level by advising the correct action for each hand. Once mastered, it allows players to focus on counting cards without worrying about making costly mistakes. Basic strategy helps ensure that any advantage gained from counting cards is not lost due to incorrect play.
How to Avoid Common Mistakes When Counting Cards
Common mistakes include miscounting cards, overestimating deck penetration, and betting too aggressively.
Tips to avoid mistakes:
- Maintain focus even in distracting situations
- Practice counting in realistic environments (e.g., live-dealer rooms)
- Start with conservative bet spreads
Is Card Counting Worth the Effort for Online Players?
For most online players, card counting is only worth it in live dealer blackjack games with sufficient deck penetration. At virtual tables, reshuffling after each hand makes counting ineffective.
How Much Advantage Can You Really Gain at Online Blackjack Sites?
With live dealer games, players can achieve a slight edge—typically 0.5-1% if deck penetration is high. The advantage is smaller than in traditional casinos.
What Are the Best Bet Spread Techniques for Online Blackjack?
Use a gradual spread, such as 1-8 units, to avoid detection. Adjust bets subtly, especially after a win, to mimic non-counter behavior.
Why Do You Need a Large Bankroll to Succeed in Online Play?
A larger bankroll helps cover potential losses from small edges and frequent reshuffles. This cushion allows players to sustain themselves through the natural ups and downs of counting and be able to play for longer.
What Are the Downsides of Counting Cards at Online Casinos?
Online casinos reshuffle frequently, monitor bet patterns, and limit deck penetration, all of which reduce the effectiveness and profitability of card counting.
What Are Other Advanced Blackjack Strategies for Online Casinos?
Other advanced blackjack strategies beyond card counting, players can use shuffle tracking and team play in live dealer games for a slight advantage.
Can You Combine Card Counting with Other Techniques Like Shuffle Tracking?
Yes, combining card counting with shuffle tracking can improve accuracy in predicting favorable cards. This approach works best in live dealer games with limited reshuffling.
What Are the Best Online Blackjack Games for Shuffle Tracking?
Live dealer blackjack games with single-deck or double-deck shoes and a minimum of 50% deck penetration are best for shuffle tracking.
How to Choose the Best Online Blackjack Sites for Advanced Players?
Look for sites offering live dealer blackjack with high deck penetration, favorable table rules (like paying 3:2), and lenient bet spread policies.
Which Online Casinos Offer the Most Favorable Blackjack Rules?
Casinos offering 3:2 blackjack payouts, fewer decks, and late surrender options are ideal for advantage play. Research our top-rated blackjack sites to find these rule sets.
